The final major release of 2025 has officially entered the spotlight.

James Cameron’s third franchise instalment; ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ is aimed toward a strong debut in the $100M–$130M range, with a midpoint expectation of around $110M.

Ahead of its release three years ago, predecessor ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ was tracking for a $150M–$175M opening. It ultimately fell short of that projection, partly because tracking models were influenced by the record-shattering holiday run of Sony/Marvel’s ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home,’ which had opened to $260.1M — the second-biggest domestic debut ever behind ‘Avengers: Endgame’ ($357.1M). Nevertheless, ‘The Way of Water’’s actual $134M start was excellent, especially considering it arrived 13 years after the original film’s $77M debut. For evaluating ‘Fire and Ash,’ that $134M benchmark essentially represents the franchise’s realistic opening-weekend ceiling.

‘The Way of Water’ went on to earn five times its opening weekend for a U.S./Canada total of $688.4M — even with a severe winter storm disrupting its second weekend. Globally, it finished with $2.34 billion, becoming the third highest-grossing film in history.

During the ‘Way of Water’ press tour earlier this fall, Cameron noted that he won’t commit to a fourth ‘Avatar’ film — despite having some footage already shot — until the third movie’s performance is clear. The reasoning is straightforward: these films cost an enormous amount to produce. Still, ‘The Way of Water’ was the most profitable Hollywood title of 2022, finishing more than half a billion dollars in the black.

The original ‘Avatar’ famously achieved a tenfold multiplier from its $77M opening to reach $785.2M domestically. Across the first two films, the franchise has generated a staggering $5.26 billion worldwide.

Cameron holds an unmatched presence in global box-office history, owning the first (‘Avatar’ at $2.92B), third (‘The Way of Water’), and fourth (‘Titanic’ at $2.26B) highest-grossing films of all time — a feat no other filmmaker matches within the all-time top ten.

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