Disney’s ‘Tron: Ares,’ the third installment in the sci-fi saga created by Steven Lisberger and Bonnie MacBird, is tracking for a $44 million domestic opening when it debuts on Oct. 10.

The forecast is in line with the 2010 release ‘Tron: Legacy,’ which launched to $44 million. However, box office analysts note there may be room for growth, as recent IMAX-driven releases such as ‘F1,’ ‘The Conjuring: Last Rites,’ and ‘Weapons’ have all outperformed their initial projections.

Advance ticket sales began two weeks ago and are estimated at $2 million to date. Comparable films include ‘Gladiator 2’ ($55 million opening), ‘F1’ ($57 million), and ‘Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny’ ($60.3 million). Marketing for ‘Tron: Ares’ is rolling out following a Comic-Con presentation, with television spots airing during NFL and college football broadcasts. At Walt Disney World, the Tron LightCycle Run attraction at Magic Kingdom has been updated with red-and-black lighting inspired by the new film.

Tracking data indicates strongest awareness among men over 25. Directed by Joachim Rønning, the film features Jared Leto, Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith, Cameron Monaghan, Gillian Anderson, and Jeff Bridges, who reprises his role as Kevin Flynn. On first-choice polling, ‘Tron: Ares’ is pacing ahead of ‘Transformers: Rise of the Beasts’ ($61 million), ‘Ready Player One’ ($41.7 million), and ‘Furiosa’ ($26.3 million), and is slightly behind ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ ($58.4 million).

The film follows Ares, a sophisticated Program sent from the digital world into reality on a dangerous mission. The Tron franchise, launched in 1982, has grossed approximately $433 million worldwide across its two previous films.

Also scheduled for wide release on Oct. 10 are Miramax/Paramount’s ‘Roofman,’ a crime romance directed by Derek Cianfrance and starring Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst, which is projected to open around $10 million following an 83% Rotten Tomatoes score out of TIFF, and Roadside Attractions/Lionsgate/LD Entertainment’s ‘Kiss of the Spider Woman,’ which is expected to debut near $5 million with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score after premiering at Sundance.

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