Leonardo DiCaprio’s star power faces a new test this weekend with the release of One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film. The action drama is projected to open between $20 million and $25 million domestically, in line with DiCaprio’s previous outing, 2023’s Killers of the Flower Moon, which debuted to $23 million. Strong reviews — the film holds a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes — and early awards chatter could lift turnout and bolster its staying power. Overseas, it is expected to add roughly $20 million in its first weekend.

Long-term performance will be crucial. With a production budget exceeding $130 million, the film will need close to $300 million globally to recoup costs in theaters. Anderson, acclaimed for Boogie Nights, Magnolia, The Master and There Will Be Blood, has rarely been a commercial force. His highest-grossing film, There Will Be Blood, earned $76.4 million worldwide in 2007.

Warner Bros., however, enters the release with momentum. The studio has delivered seven consecutive openings above $40 million — including A Minecraft Movie, Sinners, Final Destination Bloodlines, F1: The Movie, Superman, Weapons and The Conjuring: Last Rites — reversing recent box office disappointments like Joker: Folie à Deux, Mickey 17 and The Alto Knights. That streak could ease pressure on One Battle After Another to deliver an immediate hit.

Loosely based on Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, the R-rated film stars DiCaprio as Bob Ferguson, a former revolutionary living off the grid with his daughter Willa (newcomer Chase Infiniti). Their fragile peace unravels when a past foe reemerges. Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor round out the cast. In his review for Variety, chief critic Owen Gleiberman called the film “a mesmerizing vision of a police-state America” and praised Anderson’s unpredictable storytelling.

Two other wide releases arrive this weekend. Lionsgate’s The Strangers: Chapter 2 is aiming for a $6 million to $8 million debut from 2,650 theaters. The first installment opened to $12 million in 2024 and finished with $35 million domestically and $48 million worldwide. Lionsgate is developing the horror series as a trilogy, distinct from the 2008 original.

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